At a Glance
- A storm system will track across the South into the weekend.
- Large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat could accompany storms that turn severe.
- Flash flooding from heavy rainfall might also be a growing concern.
Strong to severe storms in the South could produce a few tornadoes, large hail and wind damage into the weekend as an intensifying low-pressure system tracks eastward. Heavy rainfall from the storms might also produce localized flash flooding.
This multi-day threat of severe weather begins later Thursday: Severe storms from the next system could develop by later Thursday and Thursday night in the Southern Plains, especially from central Texas into western Oklahoma. Large hail will initially be the biggest concern from those storms, but we can’t rule out damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado threat.
The threat of severe storms will shift eastward Friday and Friday night: Areas from eastern Texas and southeast Oklahoma to much of Louisiana, southern and western Arkansas, southern Mississippi and Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle could have the the greatest chance of severe storms. There is some chance the severe weather could affect areas a bit farther north in parts Arkansas, southern Missouri, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and western Tennessee.
Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be potential concerns, including through the overnight hours for some areas.
Severe weather might linger into Saturday in the Southeast: Parts of southern Georgia, southeast Alabama and northern Florida could see severe storms, especially early in the day. Wind damage, hail and isolated tornadoes are all possible. It’s possible there could be a few severe storms in the Carolinas later in the afternoon, but that part of the forecast is uncertain.
Heavy rain will also pose a flood threat to the South: Rainfall from an early-week storm system has already soaked the South over the past couple of days.
The second storm will bring even more rainfall, including to areas that were just soaked days earlier. As a result, there could be a heightened risk of flash flooding in the region, especially from parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama into Georgia and the western Carolinas by Friday and lasting into at least early Saturday.
Rainfall totals in the South through Saturday could be anywhere from 1 to 5 inches.
A developing storm system is responsible for the stormy weather: This threat of severe weather and flooding rain is the result of a familiar pattern we see in spring.
Low-pressure will intensify as it tracks from the Southern Plains into the eastern Great Lakes. Southerly winds ahead of the low will pull in Gulf moisture, giving rise to the development of widespread rain and thunderstorms.
Some of those storms could turn severe at times in areas where the atmosphere becomes unstable.
Source: https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2024-03-04-severe-weather-flooding-forecast-early-march?cm_ven=hp-slot-1