The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, and it’s forecast to be one of the most active seasons on record. Here’s five things to know as we kick off what is likely going to be a hyperactive season.
A historic forecast has been issued: NOAA’s recent May hurricane outlook had the highest numbers forecast by NOAA for any May outlook. They anticipate up to 25 named storms, 13 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes. NOAA also predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season.
The hurricane outlook issued by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 is also the busiest in their history with 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes forecast.
Though nothing of significance has formed from these tropical waves, they are typically the building blocks for Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms. About one in five tropical waves ends up becoming a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin, and about 60 tropical waves track across the Atlantic each year.
Tropical waves form off the west coast of Africa and are pushed toward North America by an upper-level high pressure system called the Bermuda High.
However, La Niña hasn’t even started yet and the Atlantic is experiencing record heat.
Parts of the main development region – the area where most tropical cyclones form, extending from the Caribbean to west Africa – already reached their average peak ocean water temperature in May. It is usually mid to late summer before these areas reach their peak average temperature.
As long as other factors are favorable, the deeper and warmer ocean water is, the more powerful a hurricane can become.
La Nina is still expected to form by later in the season: There is now a 49% chance of development from June-August, but the chances go up as we get deeper into hurricane season. From August-October, the chance of La Niña increases to 77%.
The anticipation of the transition to La Niña is part of the reason why the outlooks are forecasting a more active season than normal. La Niña Atlantic hurricane seasons are more active on average. This is because there is typically less wind shear, which rips storms apart.
The 2024 Atlantic season’s list of names: When a tropical storm does form, the first name on this year’s list is Alberto.
If all names through William are used, then a supplemental names list will be used – starting with Adria.